Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

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15 picks shown with Paddy Power prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

4 matches

16:30SantosvFlamengoBrasileirão Série A3 won / 1 lost · +1.65u · 4 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 4.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.406 Oct, 16:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +22.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +22.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.6%EV+27.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+22.5%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+22.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+12.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+22.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+9.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+23.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 16:32: under 4.5 at 2.40 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 9.5Actual: 10+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.006 Oct, 16:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +14.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +14.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+14.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+8.3%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+8.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+8.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+14.0%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+5.3%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+17.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 16:32: over 9.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Santos total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.5Actual: 5+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.858 Oct, 10:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +10.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +10.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.6%EV+10.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.6%EV+13.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV+10.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV-0.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV+5.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV-0.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV+17.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: over 4.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:03. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Flamengo total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.5Actual: 5+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.807 Oct, 13:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 65.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.54
Expected value at recommendation: +17.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.54. Expected value at recommendation: +17.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance65.1%EV+20.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.5%EV-0.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.5%EV+3.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance65.1%EV+17.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.5%EV+4.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.72
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.5%EV+4.0%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.5%EV+10.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 13:42: over 4.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 04:34. The original pick remains in the results.

17:00AthleticovAtlético MineiroBrasileirão Série A2 won / 3 lost · −0.85u · 5 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.5Actual: 2+1.10u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.106 Oct, 17:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +19.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +19.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+15.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+18.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+11.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+15.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.7%EV+19.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.5%EV+1.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 10.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.956 Oct, 17:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.81
Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.4%EV+8.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-12.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-18.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-15.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-12.0%
17 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 10.5 at 1.95 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 04:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Athletico total

Open match →FreeLost

under 5.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.006 Oct, 17:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +3.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +3.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+3.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+6.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+3.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.7%EV+5.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-5.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.72
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-12.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV+2.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 09:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+6.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.8%EV+14.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+3.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+22.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 09:17: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 15:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 4+1.05u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.058 Oct, 10:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +7.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +7.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.3%EV+7.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.3%EV+7.3%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.96
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+10.2%
26 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 2.5 at 2.05 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

18:30PalmeirasvBahiaBrasileirão Série A2 won / 1 lost · +0.97u · 3 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.158 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +24.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +24.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.7%EV+13.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+9.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+9.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+9.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+9.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+24.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.4%EV+18.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:51: over 4.5 at 2.15 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.97u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.976 Oct, 18:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+3.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+7.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV-30.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV-30.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV-30.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.57
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV-31.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV-27.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 18:32: under 4.5 at 1.97 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 04:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Bahia total

Open match →FreeWon

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 08:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.7%EV+1.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-17.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-22.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.93
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-18.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-17.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-17.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.22
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-6.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:22: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

18:30FluminensevCoritibaBrasileirão Série A2 won / 1 lost · +0.85u · 3 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 10.5Actual: 5+1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.006 Oct, 22:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.5%EV+10.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.6%EV-7.9%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.6%EV-7.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.6%EV-12.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.6%EV-7.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.6%EV-2.6%
17 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 22:06: under 10.5 at 2.00 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeLost

over 3.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.918 Oct, 10:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+4.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+4.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+1.5%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+9.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-6.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-0.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+3.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.78
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-2.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: over 3.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeWon

under 3.5Actual: 2+0.85u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.857 Oct, 01:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.6%EV+4.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+1.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.1%EV+0.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.0%EV+0.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.1%EV+8.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.9%EV-25.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.9%EV-19.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.9%EV-13.7%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 01:03: under 3.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Thu, 8 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return+27.2%ROI · 86 units staked

Profit+23.39units

W / L55 / 31picks

Avg odds2.02settled picks

Recorded picks865 matches

All dates

Overall results

5,094 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.5%

Profit+125.58 u

W / L2,497 / 2,597

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.