Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

9Cells with a direction

7Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

16Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Reset

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–9 of 9 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 3 recorded 8 · scraped	16	−10.40u-65.0% ROI	+0.64u4.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 53 · scraped	13	−7.75u-59.6% ROI	+0.54u4.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 52 · scraped	13	+1.55u11.9% ROI	−2.57u-19.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 2 recorded 116 · scraped	9	+3.90u43.3% ROI	−3.55u-39.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 13 · scraped	6	+2.20u36.7% ROI	−4.55u-75.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	6	+3.05u50.8% ROI	−3.50u-58.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	5	−2.07u-41.4% ROI	+0.90u18.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 4 reconstructed · 1 recorded 115 · scraped	5	−0.05u-1.0% ROI	−0.97u-19.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 115 · scraped	5	−2.65u-53.0% ROI	+0.75u15.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 05:09:06