Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

14Cells with a direction

24Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

38Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–14 of 14 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	9	+2.70u30.0% ROI	−4.20u-46.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded -159 · scraped	9	+2.90u32.2% ROI	−4.25u-47.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 13 · scraped	8	+3.15u39.4% ROI	−4.68u-58.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 8 · scraped	8	−3.55u-44.4% ROI	0.00u0.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	8	+0.60u7.5% ROI	−2.10u-26.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 115 · scraped	7	−1.70u-24.3% ROI	+0.21u3.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	6	0.00u0.0% ROI	−3.03u-50.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 52 · scraped	6	+0.10u1.7% ROI	−1.06u-17.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	5	+1.16u23.2% ROI	−3.05u-61.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 162 · scraped	5	−3.60u-72.0% ROI	+2.90u58.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 53 · scraped	5	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.87u17.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 164 · scraped	5	−1.00u-20.0% ROI	−0.85u-17.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 165 · scraped	5	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.85u37.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetPro League	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 168 · scraped	5	−3.15u-63.0% ROI	+0.80u16.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 18:12:19