Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

22Cells with a direction

22Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

44Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–22 of 22 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
BetlivePro League	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 147 · scraped	12	+1.70u14.2% ROI	−1.80u-15.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 113 · scraped	11	+0.90u8.2% ROI	−3.25u-29.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 247 · scraped	11	+7.85u71.4% ROI	−6.85u-62.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 137 · scraped	10	−4.50u-45.0% ROI	+1.25u12.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 246 · scraped	10	+0.55u5.5% ROI	−2.09u-20.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 112 · scraped	9	+1.42u15.8% ROI	−3.45u-38.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	9	−4.55u-50.6% ROI	+0.28u3.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 245 · scraped	9	+3.10u34.4% ROI	−3.35u-37.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	8	+1.75u21.9% ROI	−1.99u-24.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	8	−0.62u-7.7% ROI	−0.90u-11.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7422 · scraped	8	−3.45u-43.1% ROI	+0.18u2.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4339 · scraped	7	−5.50u-78.6% ROI	+1.34u19.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4345 · scraped	6	+0.05u0.8% ROI	−1.35u-22.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7420 · scraped	6	−5.00u-83.3% ROI	+1.78u29.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 99 · scraped	5	+6.60u132.0% ROI	−2.78u-55.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	5	+0.20u4.0% ROI	−0.40u-8.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 131 · scraped	5	−4.00u-80.0% ROI	+2.67u53.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Offsides · OverAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 135 · scraped	5	+0.45u9.0% ROI	−1.00u-20.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 134 · scraped	5	−3.00u-60.0% ROI	+1.17u23.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7420 · scraped	5	+2.75u55.0% ROI	−2.42u-48.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7421 · scraped	5	+7.85u157.0% ROI	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetlivePro League	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 138 · scraped	5	+1.40u28.0% ROI	−1.50u-30.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 01:08:16