Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

Normal and reversed signals · team engine

Each bookmaker × statistic × direction × scope × league uses its own earlier results. At least 10 distinct matches are required. The higher return wins, including a smaller loss. Ties and insufficient history hold.

These are paired one-unit diagnostics. Reconstructed history is shown separately from signals recorded before kickoff. Official prediction profit is measured from published recommendations.

Release: 20261019-live-v4 · 3 exact cells. VIP contains the top half of currently confirmed cells by final expected ROI; Free contains the remaining half.

Bookmaker / league	Statistic / original signal	Earlier matches	Normal 1u	Reversed 1u	Direction
Betlive MLS	corners · over · away 99 · scraped	2 2 reconstructed / 0 recorded	-2u -100%	+0.28u 14%	Hold insufficient earlier matches
Betlive MLS	corners · under · home 97 · scraped	1 1 reconstructed / 0 recorded	-1u -100%	+0.15u 15%	Hold insufficient earlier matches
Betlive MLS	goals · under · combined 44 · scraped	1 1 reconstructed / 0 recorded	+0.6u 60%	-1u -100%	Hold insufficient earlier matches