Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

0Free available0VIP available7Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

7 picks shown with Betlive prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

7 matches

12:00Levante UDvAthletic ClubLaLiga1 pick· 0 available

Goals · Athletic Club total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

over 1.5

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 06:58

Current odds2.0520 Oct, 14:59

Odds up+0.05

Model chance at recommendation: 55.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.81
Expected value at recommendation: +10.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +10.6%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 68 settled picksand +1.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Current odds2.05
Odds up+0.05
Model chance55.3%EV+10.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV+16.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV+13.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.14
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV+18.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV+7.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV+17.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 06:58: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 10:29. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Real BetisvFeyenoordUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Real Betis total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

bookmaker_offer_missing_or_changed

over 5.5

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2516 Oct, 00:18

Current odds—

No current quote for this line

Model chance at recommendation: 58.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +32.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +32.6%.

At recommendation, BetMGM UK’s overall market record had 92 settled picksand +3.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.25
Current odds—
No current quote for this line
Model chance58.9%EV+32.6%
Bet365Currentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV+4.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-2.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-5.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.04
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV+1.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-0.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-2.7%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentover 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV+3.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 00:18: over 5.5 at 2.25 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 06:15. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Real MadridvRB LeipzigUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 7.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8817 Oct, 19:21

Current odds1.4320 Oct, 14:59

Odds down−0.45

Model chance at recommendation: 59.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.88
Current odds1.43
Odds down−0.45
Model chance59.8%EV+12.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.47
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-13.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-17.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-14.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-11.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.46
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-13.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:21: under 7.5 at 1.88 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00SportingvLASKUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Sporting total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 7.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9017 Oct, 19:21

Current odds1.5220 Oct, 14:59

Odds down−0.38

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.90
Current odds1.52
Odds down−0.38
Model chance56.8%EV+8.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV-6.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV-9.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV-6.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV-9.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.53
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV-4.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:21: under 7.5 at 1.90 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00FC Bayern MünchenvArsenalUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · FC Bayern München total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 5.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9217 Oct, 19:20

Current odds1.7220 Oct, 14:59

Odds down−0.20

Model chance at recommendation: 59.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +14.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +14.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation1.92
Current odds1.72
Odds down−0.20
Model chance59.4%EV+14.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV-3.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV-1.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+6.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV-1.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV-0.3%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.74
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+0.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:20: under 5.5 at 1.92 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Aston VillavViking FKUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Aston Villa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 6.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1817 Oct, 19:21

Current odds2.0620 Oct, 14:58

Odds down−0.12

Model chance at recommendation: 50.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation2.18
Current odds2.06
Odds down−0.12
Model chance50.6%EV+10.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-14.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-6.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV+2.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-6.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-12.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-15.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:21: under 6.5 at 2.18 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

16:00Montevideo City TorquevAtlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana1 pick· 0 available

Goals · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

over 1.5

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1017 Oct, 07:00

Current odds1.9520 Oct, 15:00

Odds down−0.15

Model chance at recommendation: 55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 68 settled picksand +1.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Current odds1.95
Odds down−0.15
Model chance55.6%EV+16.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+8.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+17.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+8.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+17.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 07:00: over 1.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 10:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Wed, 21 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

No settled results yet. 0 active suggestions across 7 listed matches.

All dates

Overall results

5,231 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.3%

Profit+121.24 u

W / L2,571 / 2,660

Avg odds2.14

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.

Predictions

Matches

Goals · Athletic Club total

Corners · Real Betis total

Corners · Real Madrid total

Corners · Sporting total

Corners · FC Bayern München total

Corners · Aston Villa total

Goals · Atlético Mineiro total

Wed, 21 Oct 2026

Overall results

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This category

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