Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

0Free available0VIP available6Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

6 picks shown with Betlive prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

2 matches

08:00

Uzbekistanv

SyriaInternational Friendly Games4 picks· 0 available

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelAwaiting result

Awaiting a verified result for this recorded pick.

over 2.5

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.901 Oct, 07:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 63.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.58
Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.7%EV+21.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.5%EV+11.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 1 Oct, 07:15: over 2.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Syria total

Open match →FreePrevious modelAwaiting result

Awaiting a verified result for this recorded pick.

over 1.5

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.101 Oct, 07:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +17.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +17.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+17.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+20.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 1 Oct, 07:15: over 1.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelAwaiting result

Awaiting a verified result for this recorded pick.

over 8.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9130 Sept, 10:10

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.2%EV+1.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation1.89
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.2%EV+0.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-3.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-3.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-0.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 30 Sept, 10:10: over 8.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Uzbekistan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelAwaiting result

Awaiting a verified result for this recorded pick.

under 5.5

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.851 Oct, 07:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +2.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +2.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.1%EV+2.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV-7.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV-7.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 1 Oct, 07:15: under 5.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

10:00

Guineav

KenyaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.1 won / 1 lost · +0.15u · 2 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 7+1.15u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.151 Oct, 07:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+18.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+23.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+28.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 1 Oct, 07:15: under 7.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Guinea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2530 Sept, 12:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.6%EV+29.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 30 Sept, 12:36: under 4.5 at 2.25 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 1 Oct, 09:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Thu, 1 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return+7.5%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.15units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks64 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,458 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.6%

Profit+143.96 u

W / L2,704 / 2,754

Avg odds2.13

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.

Predictions

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Syria total

Corners · match total

Corners · Uzbekistan total

Corners · match total

Corners · Guinea total

Thu, 1 Oct 2026

Overall results

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