Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

51Cells with a direction

371Cells still gathering evidence

10Earlier matches required

422Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–40 of 51 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 72 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	72	+12.00u16.7% ROI	−4.93u-6.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 70 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	70	−53.00u-75.7% ROI	+0.49u0.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 62 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	62	−36.00u-58.1% ROI	−0.10u-0.2% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 58 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	58	−39.00u-67.2% ROI	−0.35u-0.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 54 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	54	+3.90u7.2% ROI	−7.29u-13.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 50 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	50	−12.35u-24.7% ROI	−0.72u-1.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 28 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	28	−2.17u-7.7% ROI	−2.06u-7.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 26 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	26	−6.74u-25.9% ROI	+3.52u13.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 25 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	25	+1.34u5.4% ROI	−5.13u-20.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 25 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	25	−8.19u-32.8% ROI	+4.96u19.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots on target · UnderMatch total Evidence 24 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	24	−5.77u-24.0% ROI	+2.63u11.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	19	−19.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.34u1.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	19	−19.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.18u6.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	19	−0.53u-2.8% ROI	−2.58u-13.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	19	+4.18u22.0% ROI	−6.02u-31.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	19	−1.06u-5.6% ROI	−1.60u-8.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	18	−18.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.08u0.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	18	−7.17u-39.8% ROI	+0.86u4.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	17	−17.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.10u0.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	17	−3.57u-21.0% ROI	+0.62u3.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	16	−16.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.26u1.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	16	−16.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.65u10.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	16	−5.32u-33.3% ROI	+2.60u16.2% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Yellow cards · OverMatch total Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	15	+6.72u44.8% ROI	−8.82u-58.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	15	+4.82u32.2% ROI	−7.71u-51.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots · UnderHome team Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	15	+1.55u10.3% ROI	−3.76u-25.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	14	−6.00u-42.9% ROI	+1.64u11.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	14	−4.24u-30.3% ROI	+2.50u17.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	14	−6.65u-47.5% ROI	+4.79u34.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	13	−1.93u-14.9% ROI	−0.55u-4.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	13	−7.37u-56.7% ROI	+5.62u43.2% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365UEFA Nations League	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	13	−5.06u-39.0% ROI	+2.48u19.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet3652. Bundesliga	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	+12.00u109.1% ROI	−0.82u-7.5% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet3652. Bundesliga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	+6.00u54.5% ROI	−0.75u-6.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Brasileirão Série A	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	−11.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.19u1.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Brasileirão Série A	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	−1.00u-9.1% ROI	−0.48u-4.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Bundesliga	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	−11.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.15u1.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Bundesliga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	+23.00u209.1% ROI	−1.82u-16.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365LaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	11	−5.88u-53.4% ROI	+4.33u39.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	11	+23.00u209.1% ROI	−0.91u-8.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 10 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 11:09:15