Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

3 picks shown with Bet365 prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

3 matches

10:45JuventusvStade RennaisUEFA Europa League1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Juventus total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 5.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0417 Oct, 19:22

Current odds1.9221 Oct, 10:25

Odds down−0.12

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +2.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +2.2%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.04
Current odds1.92
Odds down−0.12
Model chance50.1%EV+2.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-5.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-8.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-8.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-8.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-5.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-3.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:22: under 5.5 at 2.04 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

10:45FC Iberia 1999vMjällby AIFUEFA Conference League1 pick· 0 available

Goals · Mjällby AIF total

Open match →FreePrevious modelPrevious model retired

This recommendation was retired when the model changed. It remains here as a record, even if the bookmaker now offers better odds.

over 1.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1018 Oct, 18:12

Current odds2.1021 Oct, 07:00

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 57.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +20.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +20.6%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 234 settled picksand +1.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Current odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance57.4%EV+20.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.1%EV+13.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.1%EV+13.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.1%EV+11.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.1%EV+13.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentover 1.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.17
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.1%EV+17.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 18:12: over 1.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

18:30FlamengovEstudiantes de La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Flamengo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelNo longer recommended

No longer qualifies in the evaluated publication snapshot

under 5.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2017 Oct, 19:23

Current odds1.8121 Oct, 10:26

Odds down−0.39

Model chance at recommendation: 53.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.20
Current odds1.81
Odds down−0.39
Model chance53.4%EV+17.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-9.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-7.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-7.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-11.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-10.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:23: under 5.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Thu, 22 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

No settled results yet. 0 active suggestions across 3 listed matches.

All dates

Overall results

5,458 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.6%

Profit+143.96 u

W / L2,704 / 2,754

Avg odds2.13

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.

Predictions

Matches

Corners · Juventus total

Goals · Mjällby AIF total

Corners · Flamengo total

Thu, 22 Oct 2026

Overall results

On this page

This category

StatsGem