Predictions Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
Public beta 18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research Independence, method & limitations We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.
An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.
StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.
Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support
Unified-model backtest Original picks & estimates 0 Free available0 VIP available9 Recorded Free0 Recorded VIP
Match day · Loading… Bookmaker filters price options; results use the recorded picks.
Today * Est. = historical estimate
Browse the full month W / L picksEst. = historical estimate
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 — — 31 — — W / L picksEst. = historical estimate
W / L picksEst. = historical estimate
W / L picksEst. = historical estimate
Picks Daily results Overall results Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.
9 picks shown with Bet365 prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
06:00 Albacete Balompié v Eibar 2 historical estimates Corners · Albacete Balompié total Open match → Historical estimate under 4.5
Bet365 reference price
Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Bet365 reference price Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Model chance 61.3%EV +34.9%Betlive Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Model chance 61.3%EV +34.9%Crocobet Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Model chance 61.3%EV +34.9%Liderbet Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Model chance 61.3%EV +34.9%Superbet Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 2.15
→ Closing odds 2.15
Model chance 61.3%EV +31.9%BetMGM UK Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 1.95
→ Closing odds 1.95
Model chance 61.3%EV +19.6%Kambi Closing estimate under 4.5 Reference odds 1.95
→ Closing odds 1.95
Model chance 61.3%EV +19.6%over 1.5
Bet365 reference price
Reference odds 2.38
→ Closing odds 2.38
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Bet365 reference price Closing estimate over 1.5 Reference odds 2.38
→ Closing odds 2.38
Model chance 56.3%EV +33.7%BetMGM UK Closing estimate over 1.5 Reference odds 2.32
→ Closing odds 2.32
Model chance 56.3%EV +30.6%12:45 Switzerland v Slovenia 1 historical estimate under 5.5
Betlive reference price
Reference odds 2.25
→ Closing odds 2.25
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Betlive reference price Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.25
→ Closing odds 2.25
Model chance 54.3%EV +22.2%Liderbet Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.25
→ Closing odds 2.25
Model chance 54.3%EV +22.2%Crocobet Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.20
→ Closing odds 2.20
Model chance 54.3%EV +19.5%Bet365 Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.10
→ Closing odds 2.10
Model chance 54.3%EV +14.1%Superbet Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.07
→ Closing odds 2.07
Model chance 54.3%EV +12.5%Paddy Power Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 2.05
→ Closing odds 2.05
Model chance 54.3%EV +11.4%Kambi Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 1.92
→ Closing odds 1.92
Model chance 54.3%EV +4.3%12:45 Spain v Czechia 1 historical estimate Shots on target · Spain total Open match → Historical estimate over 8.5
Superbet reference price
Reference odds 2.10
→ Closing odds 2.10
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Superbet reference price Closing estimate over 8.5 Reference odds 2.10
→ Closing odds 2.10
Model chance 50.3%EV +5.6%Bet365 Closing estimate over 8.5 Reference odds 2.00
→ Closing odds 2.00
Model chance 50.3%EV +0.6%Betlive Closing estimate over 8.5 Reference odds 2.00
→ Closing odds 2.00
Model chance 50.3%EV +0.6%Crocobet Closing estimate over 8.5 Reference odds 2.00
→ Closing odds 2.00
Model chance 50.3%EV +0.6%14:00 Atlético Tucumán v Barracas Central 1 historical estimate Goals · Barracas Central total Open match → Historical estimate over 0.5
Bet365 reference price
Reference odds 1.91
→ Closing odds 1.91
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Bet365 reference price Closing estimate over 0.5 Reference odds 1.91
→ Closing odds 1.91
Model chance 54.7%EV +4.4%BetMGM UK Closing estimate over 0.5 Reference odds 1.89
→ Closing odds 1.89
Model chance 54.7%EV +3.4%15:30 Atlético Mineiro v Red Bull Bragantino 2 historical estimates Corners · Atlético Mineiro total Open match → Historical estimate under 5.5
Superbet reference price
Reference odds 1.92
→ Closing odds 1.92
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Superbet reference price Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 1.92
→ Closing odds 1.92
Model chance 53.8%EV +3.3%Bet365 Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 1.91
→ Closing odds 1.91
Model chance 53.8%EV +2.7%BetMGM UK Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 1.88
→ Closing odds 1.88
Model chance 53.8%EV +1.2%Kambi Closing estimate under 5.5 Reference odds 1.88
→ Closing odds 1.88
Model chance 53.8%EV +1.2%Shots on target · match total Open match → Historical estimate over 9.5
Crocobet reference price
Reference odds 1.95
→ Closing odds 1.95
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Crocobet reference price Closing estimate over 9.5 Reference odds 1.95
→ Closing odds 1.95
Model chance 55.0%EV +7.3%Bet365 Closing estimate over 9.5 Reference odds 1.91
→ Closing odds 1.91
Model chance 55.0%EV +5.0%20:00 Belize v French Guiana 1 historical estimate over 1.5
Bet365 reference price
Reference odds 2.63
→ Closing odds 2.63
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Bet365 reference price Closing estimate over 1.5 Reference odds 2.63
→ Closing odds 2.63
Model chance 58.5%EV +53.4%20:00 USA v Mexico 1 historical estimate over 1.5
Bet365 reference price
Reference odds 2.10
→ Closing odds 2.10
Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.
Bookmaker prices and pick details Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bookmaker Line Captured → closing Model chance EV
Bet365 reference price Closing estimate over 1.5 Reference odds 2.10
→ Closing odds 2.10
Model chance 59.1%EV +24.1%Selected day
Sat, 3 Oct 2026 Recorded results · all bookmaker options Historical estimates for this date are shown below. They are excluded from recorded results.
9 historical estimates shown below. Their calculated returns appear only in the calendar and all-date display totals.
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.
ROI +2.6%
Profit +143.69 u
W / L 2,705 / 2,755
Avg odds 2.13
How to read this board A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.
Switzerlandv
SloveniaUEFA Nations League1 historical estimate
Spainv
CzechiaUEFA Nations League1 historical estimate
Belizev
French GuianaCONCACAF Nations League1 historical estimate
USAv
MexicoInternational Friendly Games1 historical estimate