Sarmiento vs River Plate 1-1 — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Sarmiento

1–1

HT 1–0

River Plate

Wed 14 Oct·16:00·Matchday 11·Estadio Eva Perón·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners9
3Cards2
11Shots22
4Shots on target8
20Fouls8
20Throw-ins13
0Offsides1
8Goal kicks5
7Saves3
17Tackles22
11Interceptions6
12Dribbles11

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

16:00SarmientovRiver PlateLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 won / 1 lost · +0.18u · 2 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.108 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds2.0414 Oct, 15:51

Odds down−0.06

Model chance at recommendation: 50.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +6.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +6.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.04
Odds down−0.06
Model chance50.6%EV+6.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 15:51
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate11.1%Closing EV estimate−39.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
- under 6.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−29.2%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:51
- under 7.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate29.4%Closing EV estimate−22.1%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
- under 8.5odds2.04Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:51
- under 9.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate52.9%Closing EV estimate−13.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:51
- under 10.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate−10.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
- under 11.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−8.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
- under 12.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
Bet365Closing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.0%EV-13.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 01:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 01:37
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.0%EV-20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 13:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate11.1%Closing EV estimate−29.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
- under 6.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−36.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
- under 7.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate29.4%Closing EV estimate−25.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate52.9%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 10.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 11.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−14.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
- under 12.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−12.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
- under 13.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.0%EV-20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 21:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−36.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:20
- under 7.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate29.4%Closing EV estimate−25.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate52.9%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 10.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
- under 11.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:57
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.0%EV-20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 21:58
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−36.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21
- under 7.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate29.4%Closing EV estimate−25.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:58
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:58
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate52.9%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:58
- under 10.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate−13.4%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:58
- under 11.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:58
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.0%EV-15.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 21:59
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate2.3%Closing EV estimate−66.2%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate5.5%Closing EV estimate−54.9%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 5.5odds5.35Closing chance estimate11.1%Closing EV estimate−40.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 6.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−30.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 7.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate29.4%Closing EV estimate−22.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−15.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 9.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate52.9%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 10.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 11.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 12.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- under 13.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: under 8.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 5+1.18u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1813 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds2.2514 Oct, 15:51

Odds up+0.07

Model chance at recommendation: 53.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 77 settled picksand +6.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds2.00
Odds down−0.20
Model chance53.6%EV+17.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 01:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 01:37
BetliveAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.85
Odds down−0.05
Model chance53.6%EV+1.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 13:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 02:43
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
- over 3.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 03:09
- over 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 13:09
- over 5.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 02:43
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.18
Closing odds2.25
Odds up+0.07
Model chance53.1%EV+15.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 15:51
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:43
- over 3.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:51
- over 4.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate+26.8%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:51
- over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
SuperbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds1.92
Odds down−0.15
Model chance53.1%EV+10.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 21:59
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:23
- over 1.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- over 2.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- over 3.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- over 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- over 5.5odds4.15Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
- over 6.5odds6.30Closing chance estimate15.2%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 21:59
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.1%EV-1.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 15:46
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:46
- over 2.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:46
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:46
- over 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:46
- over 5.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate+27.5%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 15:46

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 3.5 at 2.18 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+9.0%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.18units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.14settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol Home teamSarmiento Away teamRiver Plate RefereeZunino, Sebastian

Match overview

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Corners · match total

Corners · Sarmiento total

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