Mantova vs Palermo 0-2 — Serie B

Serie BSerie B 26/27

Mantova

0–2

HT 0–0

Palermo

Sat 17 Oct·09:15·Matchday 7·Stadio Danilo Martelli·Palermo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners3
0Cards1
15Shots13
4Shots on target5
15Fouls12
23Throw-ins16
2Offsides3
5Goal kicks10
3Saves4
8Tackles20
5Interceptions12
4Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

09:15MantovavPalermoSerie B0 won / 3 lost · −3.00u · 3 picks

Corners · Mantova total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 06:32

Closing odds1.8917 Oct, 08:47

Odds down−0.02

Model chance at recommendation: 57.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +10.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +10.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.91
Unchanged
Model chance55.6%EV+6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 13:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−16.4%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 13:20
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.89
Odds down−0.02
Model chance57.6%EV+10.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:47
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.89Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−17.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:47
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.8%EV-19.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 00:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 00:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.8%EV-25.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 00:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate−17.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 3.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−21.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−25.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 5.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate29.7%Closing EV estimate−30.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 6.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−34.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.8%EV-27.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−22.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−27.8%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
- over 5.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate29.7%Closing EV estimate−30.3%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.8%EV-19.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 09:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate−7.2%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−19.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 5.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate29.7%Closing EV estimate−26.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 6.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−35.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 7.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate10.5%Closing EV estimate−46.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:32: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 11:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Palermo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1716 Oct, 12:53

Closing odds2.1715 Oct, 13:20

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%.

At recommendation, BetMGM UK’s overall market record had 293 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.17
Closing odds2.17
Unchanged
Model chance54.3%EV+17.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 13:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.17Closing chance estimate54.4%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 13:20
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV+22.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 00:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 4.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate54.4%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 6.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+39.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
- over 7.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+56.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:20
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV+19.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
- over 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate54.4%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:31
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV+16.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:47
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:47
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate54.4%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:47
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.27
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV+23.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 09:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate96.3%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:19
- over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate89.9%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:19
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 4.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.27Closing chance estimate54.4%Closing EV estimate+23.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 6.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+30.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32
- over 7.5odds4.55Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+36.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 12:53: over 5.5 at 2.17 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 15:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 28.5Actual: 28−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 09:36

Closing odds2.0015 Oct, 09:32

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 264 settled picksand +12.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 28.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 23.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate84.7%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:21
- over 24.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:45
- over 25.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:02
- over 26.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.5%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:21
- over 27.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:32
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:32
- over 29.5odds2.32Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:45
- over 30.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:45
- over 31.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:43

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 09:36: over 28.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−100.0%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit−3.00units

W / L0 / 3picks

Avg odds2.03settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie B Home teamMantova Away teamPalermo RefereeLuca Zufferli

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Mantova total

Corners · Palermo total

Shots · match total

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