Guinea vs Kenya 1-0 — Africa Cup of Nations Qual.

Africa Cup of Nations Qual.Africa Cup of Nations Qualification 2026

Guinea

1–0

HT 1–0

Kenya

Thu 1 Oct·10:00·Matchday 2·Group D·Guinea won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners2
1Cards1
9Shots5
3Shots on target2
10Fouls17
25Throw-ins33
3Offsides1
5Goal kicks5
2Saves2
23Tackles18
9Interceptions8
4Dribbles1

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available2Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

10:00

Guineav

KenyaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.1 won / 1 lost · +0.15u · 2 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 7+1.15u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.151 Oct, 07:15

Closing odds2.151 Oct, 07:07

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.15
Unchanged
Model chance54.9%EV+18.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 1 Oct, 07:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate+35.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 5.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate+50.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 6.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate+44.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+38.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 8.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 9.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate+22.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 10.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 11.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 12.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate97.4%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance54.9%EV+23.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 30 Sept, 12:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate+51.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+45.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 8.5odds1.78Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate+35.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 9.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate+27.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+28.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 1 Oct, 07:08
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate+53.9%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 6.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate+41.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+28.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 8.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 9.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 10.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 11.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08

Recommendation record

Recorded 1 Oct, 07:15: under 7.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Guinea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2530 Sept, 12:36

Closing odds2.2530 Sept, 12:31

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 57.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance57.6%EV+29.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 30 Sept, 12:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 5.5odds1.69Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
- under 6.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+25.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 30 Sept, 12:31
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 1 Oct, 07:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+59.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 5.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 6.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+23.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
- under 7.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:07
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 1 Oct, 07:08
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+57.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.4%Model unavailableCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 5.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+29.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08
- under 6.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+19.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 1 Oct, 07:08

Recommendation record

Recorded 30 Sept, 12:36: under 4.5 at 2.25 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 1 Oct, 09:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+7.5%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.15units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.Home teamGuinea Away teamKenya

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Corners · Guinea total

This match

Around this match

On this page

This category

StatsGem

Bro VIP · Beta

Football intelligence, with your VIP.

What are we exploring, bro?