Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie

EredivisieEredivisie 26/27

Feyenoord

2–0

HT 1–0

AZ Alkmaar

Sat 10 Oct··Matchday 8·De Kuip·Feyenoord won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 7Corners6
  • 1Cards3
  • 15Shots12
  • 4Shots on target2
  • 12Fouls15
  • 17Throw-ins20
  • 0Offsides3
  • 12Goal kicks11
  • 2Saves2
  • 22Tackles24
  • 13Interceptions8
  • 6Dribbles10
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available12Recorded Free4Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
FeyenoordvAZ AlkmaarEredivisie2 won / 14 lost · −12.27u · 16 picks

Cards · Feyenoord total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+0.85u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.95
Odds up+0.10
Model chance at recommendation
55.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.81
Expected value at recommendation
+2.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +2.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds1.95
    Odds up+0.10
    Model chance55.5%EV+2.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate23.7%Closing EV estimate−75.8%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.9%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.9%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.73
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.9%EV+0.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.9%EV-13.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate−13.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:18: under 1.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds2.20
Odds up+0.13
Model chance at recommendation
52.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.92
Expected value at recommendation
+8.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.1%EV+9.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.7%EV+10.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.08
    Closing odds2.10
    Odds up+0.02
    Model chance52.2%EV+8.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.07
    Closing odds2.20
    Odds up+0.13
    Model chance52.2%EV+8.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−80.8%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.0%EV-20.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:18: under 1.5 at 2.07 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 03:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.85
Expected value at recommendation
+8.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.1%EV+8.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.90
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.1%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate12.5%Closing EV estimate−27.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.05
    Model chance54.1%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds1.91
    Odds up+0.06
    Model chance54.1%EV+0.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds4.60Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.90
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.1%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:59

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.95
    Odds down−0.05
    Model chance54.1%EV+8.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.2%EV+8.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds9.90Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−34.1%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate12.5%Closing EV estimate−18.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−6.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Feyenoord total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 7+0.88u on one unit
BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds1.79
Odds down−0.09
Model chance at recommendation
56.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.79
Expected value at recommendation
+5.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +5.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
    At recommendation1.88
    Closing odds1.79
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance56.0%EV+5.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.79Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.73
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-0.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-10.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate42.2%Closing EV estimate−13.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate28.6%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate42.2%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate28.6%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.79
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV+3.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.79Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate42.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate28.6%Closing EV estimate−11.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate10.6%Closing EV estimate−53.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-10.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate−8.3%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate42.2%Closing EV estimate−13.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate28.6%Closing EV estimate−17.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.72
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV-0.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate72.8%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.72Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate42.2%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate28.6%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 5.5 at 1.88 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Feyenoord total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
51.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.94
Expected value at recommendation
+3.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +3.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.7%EV+3.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−15.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 5.5
    At recommendation1.94
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds up+0.11
    Model chance51.8%EV+0.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−37.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−18.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-19.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−19.5%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.05
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-13.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−38.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−6.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-23.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−29.2%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−23.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−15.8%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-19.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−43.8%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−30.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−19.5%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−7.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate89.4%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds8.50Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate−48.0%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−27.0%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−15.2%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance42.4%EV-15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds7.30Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate−55.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds4.25Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−37.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−25.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−15.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 06:22: under 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.09
Model chance at recommendation
57.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.76
Expected value at recommendation
+14.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +14.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.91
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance57.0%EV+14.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.05
    Model chance57.6%EV+9.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 08:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 4.5
    At recommendation1.91
    Closing odds1.88
    Odds down−0.03
    Model chance57.6%EV+9.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate93.3%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
    At recommendation2.07
    Closing odds2.00
    Odds down−0.07
    Model chance57.0%EV+18.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds9.30Closing chance estimate8.6%Closing EV estimate−20.5%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate93.3%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.6%EV+4.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.6%EV+7.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.6%EV+16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate22.2%Closing EV estimate+22.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 20.5Actual: 27−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds1.97
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.85
Expected value at recommendation
+6.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +6.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 20.5
    At recommendation1.97
    Closing odds1.97
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.1%EV+6.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate54.2%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21.5odds1.87Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:51: under 20.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 05:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds2.05
Odds up+0.10
Model chance at recommendation
51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.93
Expected value at recommendation
+1.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds up+0.10
    Model chance51.9%EV+1.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate61.8%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:18: under 10.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds2.05
Odds up+0.13
Model chance at recommendation
58.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+12.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds up+0.13
    Model chance58.5%EV+12.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate48.6%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate61.8%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 08:51: under 8.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit
Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds2.04
Odds up+0.02
Model chance at recommendation
62.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.62
Expected value at recommendation
+25.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +25.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation2.02
    Closing odds2.04
    Odds up+0.02
    Model chance62.0%EV+25.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds2.04Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+26.9%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.91
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+18.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin3.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+39.3%margin5.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+57.5%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate+58.0%margin4.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds21.00Closing chance estimate7.1%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin3.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.08
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+29.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin0.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin1.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.08Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+50.0%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+73.3%margin1.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate+115.4%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds34.00Closing chance estimate7.1%Closing EV estimate+140.3%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+15.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+15.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+15.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.55Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+19.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 163.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 165.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 166.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 168.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+21.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+37.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+44.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate+43.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance62.2%EV+24.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin2.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+39.3%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds5.70Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate+49.6%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate+58.0%margin4.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.02 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 30.5Actual: 27−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds2.45
Odds down−0.20
Model chance at recommendation
63.9%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.57
Expected value at recommendation
+69.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +69.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateover 30.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.9%Model unavailable
    • over 25.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+26.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+35.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate74.9%Closing EV estimate+46.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+56.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailable
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 30.5
    At recommendation2.65
    Closing odds2.45
    Odds down−0.20
    Model chance63.9%EV+69.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.4%Model unavailable
    • over 25.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+26.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+32.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds1.86Closing chance estimate74.9%Closing EV estimate+39.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+47.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+65.1%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 30.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 25.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+26.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate74.9%Closing EV estimate+34.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+42.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate57.9%Closing EV estimate+57.6%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 32.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate+71.1%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 30.5 at 2.65 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 11:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Feyenoord total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 17.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.10
Odds down−0.20
Model chance at recommendation
66.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.50
Expected value at recommendation
+53.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 66.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.50. Expected value at recommendation: +53.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 17.5
    At recommendation2.25
    Closing odds2.25
    Unchanged
    Model chance71.0%EV+59.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+28.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+37.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+55.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate61.2%Closing EV estimate+65.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 17.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.10
    Odds down−0.20
    Model chance66.8%EV+53.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+29.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+33.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds1.84Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+40.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+45.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 17.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance69.1%EV+45.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate94.9%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+24.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+38.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+45.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate61.2%Closing EV estimate+53.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+59.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 17.5 at 2.30 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.23
Closing odds2.23
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.79
Expected value at recommendation
+25.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +25.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.23
    Closing odds2.23
    Unchanged
    Model chance56.1%EV+25.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.86Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.23Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.15
    Closing odds2.15
    Unchanged
    Model chance69.7%EV+49.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate32.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate24.4%Closing EV estimate−12.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.23
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV+17.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.23Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV+18.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 12.5 at 2.23 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.12
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
70.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.43
Expected value at recommendation
+48.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 70.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.43. Expected value at recommendation: +48.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance70.2%EV+47.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate87.0%Closing EV estimate+21.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+35.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate+47.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+67.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation2.12
    Closing odds2.12
    Unchanged
    Model chance70.2%EV+48.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.3%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate92.6%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate87.0%Closing EV estimate+21.9%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.69Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate+48.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+62.4%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate+78.1%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate38.3%Closing EV estimate+102.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.92
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance70.2%EV+34.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate92.6%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate87.0%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+46.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate+56.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate38.3%Closing EV estimate+60.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:18: over 10.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 11:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Feyenoord total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit
BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.05
Odds down−0.25
Model chance at recommendation
62.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.61
Expected value at recommendation
+43.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +43.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds down−0.25
    Model chance62.5%EV+43.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+31.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.35
    Closing odds2.35
    Unchanged
    Model chance53.8%EV+26.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate87.6%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+35.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+51.3%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.14
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance53.8%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate87.6%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+31.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+40.6%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate36.7%Closing EV estimate+43.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.40
    Closing odds2.40
    Unchanged
    Model chance53.4%EV+28.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate98.1%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate87.6%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+54.5%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+68.2%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate36.7%Closing EV estimate+76.0%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 6.5 at 2.30 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.17
Odds up+0.05
Model chance at recommendation
56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.79
Expected value at recommendation
+18.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.12
    Closing odds2.17
    Odds up+0.05
    Model chance56.1%EV+18.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.17Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds7.10Closing chance estimate12.4%Closing EV estimate−11.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.6%EV+20.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.6%EV+23.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 10:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+23.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate+25.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 4.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−76.7%ROI · 16 units staked
Profit−12.27units
W / L2 / 14picks
Avg odds2.09settled picks
Recorded picks161 matches

Around this match

CompetitionEredivisieHome teamFeyenoordAway teamAZ AlkmaarRefereeDanny Makkelie

Previous meetings

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