Athletico vs Palmeiras 0-2 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Athletico

0–2

HT 0–2

Palmeiras

Sat 17 Oct·16:30·Matchday 31·Ligga Arena·Palmeiras won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

16Corners1
2Cards3
24Shots6
6Shots on target3
11Fouls8
30Throw-ins14
2Offsides0
2Goal kicks14
1Saves6
12Tackles12
7Interceptions16
6Dribbles2

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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Board

Matches

1 match

16:30AthleticovPalmeirasBrasileirão Série A1 won / 1 lost · +0.20u · 2 picks

Goals · Palmeiras total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 2+1.20u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2014 Oct, 08:09

Closing odds2.2217 Oct, 15:57

Odds up+0.02

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +24.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +24.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 39 settled picksand +5.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.20
Odds down−0.05
Model chance57.1%EV+28.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 16:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:00
- over 1.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+23.8%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:00
- over 2.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+55.3%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:00
- over 3.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate+68.5%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:00
- over 4.5odds34.00Closing chance estimate3.7%Closing EV estimate+25.4%margin2.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:00
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.10
Odds down−0.05
Model chance57.1%EV+22.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 1.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 2.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 3.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate−21.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.7%Closing EV estimate−69.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:17
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds2.22
Odds up+0.02
Model chance56.4%EV+24.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 1.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+24.9%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 2.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 3.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate+34.8%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 22:41
- over 4.5odds31.00Closing chance estimate3.7%Closing EV estimate+14.3%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+18.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 2.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 3.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate−21.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.7%Closing EV estimate−69.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 18:16
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.23
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+25.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 16:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.23Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:07
- over 2.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+38.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:07
- over 3.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate+34.8%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:07
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+18.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 2.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate28.2%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 3.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate11.2%Closing EV estimate−21.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.7%Closing EV estimate−69.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 18:16

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 08:09: over 1.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 14:35. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Palmeiras total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 14.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0815 Oct, 14:06

Closing odds1.8517 Oct, 15:57

Odds down−0.23

Model chance at recommendation: 60.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +26.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +26.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 125 settled picksand +7.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation2.08
Closing odds1.85
Odds down−0.23
Model chance60.6%EV+26.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 12.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:35
- over 13.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:35
- over 14.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate61.1%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:57
- over 15.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:06
Bet365Closing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+10.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 15:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate61.1%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:30
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.81
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+10.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 01:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.81Closing chance estimate61.1%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 01:02
LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+13.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:12
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:12
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate61.1%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:12
- over 15.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate+18.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:12
SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+11.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 13:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate81.0%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:32
- over 12.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:50
- over 13.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:32
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate61.1%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 15.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 17:20
- over 16.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate47.1%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:21
- over 17.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 14:06: over 14.5 at 2.08 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+10.0%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.20units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.14settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamAthletico Away teamPalmeiras RefereePaulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva

Match overview

Matches

Goals · Palmeiras total

Shots · Palmeiras total

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