Ascoli vs Empoli 1-1 — Serie B

Serie BSerie B 26/27

Ascoli

1–1

HT 1–1

Empoli

Sat 17 Oct·07:00·Matchday 7·Cino e Lillo Del Duca·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners7
1Cards1
9Shots16
2Shots on target3
11Fouls17
25Throw-ins22
2Offsides1
5Goal kicks9
2Saves1
14Tackles27
13Interceptions7
11Dribbles1

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

07:00AscolivEmpoliSerie B2 won / 1 lost · +1.01u · 3 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 13+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1013 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds2.1014 Oct, 00:15

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 52.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance52.7%EV+10.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 00:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 00:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV+2.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 22:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:16
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 08:37
- over 8.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 08:37
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:16
- over 10.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 08:37
- over 11.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 08:37
- over 12.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate21.7%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 13.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−11.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV+0.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:30
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:04
- over 8.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:04
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:30
- over 10.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:04
- over 11.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:04
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV+1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:26
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:26
- over 10.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:20
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV+2.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:05
- over 8.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:05
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 10.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin15.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:05
- over 11.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 09:05
- over 12.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate21.7%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 13.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV+8.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 06:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate96.1%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25
- over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25
- over 7.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 8.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 10.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25
- over 12.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate21.7%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25
- over 13.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25
- over 14.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate9.5%Closing EV estimate−26.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:25

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 00:06: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Empoli total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 7+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds1.9114 Oct, 00:15

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 57.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.91
Unchanged
Model chance57.9%EV+10.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 00:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 00:15
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.78
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+9.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 13:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.78Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 13:20
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+7.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 22:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate89.6%Closing EV estimate−5.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 2.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
- over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate31.9%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:56
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:30
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:30
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:30
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.79
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+9.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.79Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:26
- over 4.5odds2.48Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:26
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate89.6%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 5.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate31.9%Closing EV estimate+37.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+12.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 07:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.3%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 06:20
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate89.6%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 2.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 5.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate31.9%Closing EV estimate+21.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 6.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate20.6%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 3.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 27.5Actual: 25−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9215 Oct, 07:24

Closing odds1.9215 Oct, 07:21

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 264 settled picksand +12.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds1.92
Unchanged
Model chance53.3%EV+2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 23.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:29
- over 24.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:13
- over 25.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:10
- over 26.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate58.3%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:20
- over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 07:21
- over 28.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 07:21
- over 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:26
- over 30.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:26
- over 31.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate27.1%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 02:59
LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.7%EV-7.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 02:59
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 26.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate58.3%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 02:59
- over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 02:59
- over 28.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 02:59

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 07:24: over 27.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 15:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+33.6%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit+1.01units

W / L2 / 1picks

Avg odds1.98settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie B Home teamAscoli Away teamEmpoli RefereeEdoardo Manedo Mazzoni

Match overview

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