Paddy Power

Benchmark records and predictions from this bookmaker.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

BenchmarksBenchmarks PredictionsPredictions

0Free available0VIP available1Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

1 pick shown with Paddy Power prices. Results retain the original recorded line and odds.

Board

Matches

1 match

17:30New York Red BullsvSt.Louis CityMLS1 historical estimate

Corners · New York Red Bulls total

Open match →Historical estimate

under 4.5

Paddy Powerreference price

Reference odds2.25

Closing odds2.25

Reconstructed from saved model and bookmaker data. This was not a saved pre-match recommendation and is excluded from recorded performance.

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
Reference odds2.25
Closing odds2.25
Model chance56.9%EV+28.1%

Selected day

Wed, 30 Sept 2026

Recorded picks · Paddy Power

Historical estimates for this date are shown below. They are excluded from recorded results.

1 historical estimate shown below. Their calculated returns appear only in the calendar and all-date display totals.

All dates

Overall results

94 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (42 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 4 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026.

ROI−7.6%

Profit−7.15 u

W / L41 / 53

Avg odds2.23

Paddy Power

Matches

Corners · New York Red Bulls total

Wed, 30 Sept 2026

Overall results

On this page

This category

StatsGem