Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — MLS

MLSMLS 2026

Sat 10 Oct··Children's Mercy Park·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 6Corners1
  • 0Cards1
  • 12Shots9
  • 5Shots on target5
  • 17Fouls9
  • 8Throw-ins15
  • 1Offsides1
  • 3Goal kicks7
  • 2Saves2
  • 7Tackles10
  • 13Interceptions11
  • 5Dribbles3
5 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
Sporting Kansas CityvPortland TimbersMLS2 won / 4 lost · −1.78u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon
under 3.52.30 at Betlive+1.30u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +19.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.30Model chance51.8%EV+19.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−35.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailable
    • under 5.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 3.52.30Model chance51.8%EV+19.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 3.52.30Model chance51.8%EV+19.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:06

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−35.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.52.35Model chance51.8%EV+21.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 16:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate2.8%Closing EV estimate−96.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate85.0%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.52.00Model chance52.4%EV+4.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 12:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:06: under 3.5 at 2.30 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 10.52.10 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.52.10Model chance51.8%EV+8.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.0%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate90.7%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate22.9%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate15.9%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance53.2%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate90.7%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.05Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate+28.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate22.9%Closing EV estimate+33.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance53.2%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance53.2%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.52.10Model chance53.2%EV+11.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate+26.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:11: over 10.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPLost
under 22.51.92 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 69.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.45. Expected value at recommendation: +33.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.51.92Model chance69.4%EV+33.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+38.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+35.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 09:06: under 22.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 18:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon
over 3.51.93 at Pinnacle+0.93u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +8.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 3.51.80Model chance56.4%EV+1.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds3.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 3.51.80Model chance56.4%EV+1.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds3.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 3.51.80Model chance56.4%EV+1.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds3.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 171.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 173.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 175.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.51.93Model chance56.4%EV+8.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.25odds1.69Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin3.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.75odds2.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.51.80Model chance59.7%EV+7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin3.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate+27.9%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds19.00Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin3.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 3.51.94Model chance59.7%EV+15.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 0.75odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailable
    • over 1.25odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.3%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.75odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.2%Model unavailable
    • over 2odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%Model unavailable
    • over 2.25odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin0.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.75odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3odds1.54Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.25odds1.74Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.94Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.75odds2.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%Model unavailable
    • over 4odds2.51Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.6%Model unavailable
    • over 4.25odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+24.6%margin1.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.75odds3.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5odds4.94Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.2%Model unavailable
    • over 5.25odds5.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate+39.3%margin1.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.75odds7.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.6%Model unavailable
    • over 6odds11.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.6%Model unavailable
    • over 6.25odds11.61Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate+53.5%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.75odds16.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7odds25.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 7.25odds26.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds27.00Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate+65.4%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.75odds37.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.7%Model unavailable
    • over 8odds63.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%Model unavailable
    • over 8.25odds64.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds65.00Closing chance estimate2.7%Closing EV estimate+72.6%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.51.80Model chance59.7%EV+7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 15:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin5.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate+24.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds9.00Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.51.85Model chance59.7%EV+10.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin3.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.25odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.75odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
    • over 3.25odds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.3%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.75odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4odds2.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.25odds2.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.4%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds2.92Closing chance estimate40.2%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.75odds3.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:11: over 3.5 at 1.93 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 10.52.10 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +19.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.51.85Model chance57.4%EV+6.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.52.10Model chance56.9%EV+19.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate93.2%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate87.7%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.78Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.87Closing chance estimate38.3%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate20.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 04:47: over 10.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Sporting Kansas City total

Open match →FreeLost
over 5.52.20 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +22.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 5.52.00Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 5.51.84Model chance54.7%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 18:16

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.04Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 5.52.20Model chance55.8%EV+22.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate24.0%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 04:47: over 5.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−29.6%ROI · 6 units staked
Profit−1.77units
W / L2 / 4picks
Avg odds2.09settled picks
Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

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