San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra 1-0 — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

San Lorenzo

1–0

HT 0–0

Deportivo Riestra

Sun 11 Oct·11:45·Matchday 12·Pedro Bidegain·San Lorenzo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners1
3Cards4
13Shots11
4Shots on target3
11Fouls18
12Throw-ins29
1Offsides2
4Goal kicks8
3Saves3
22Tackles10
15Interceptions7
3Dribbles10

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

2 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

11:45San LorenzovDeportivo RiestraLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 won / 2 lost · −1.09u · 3 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 5.51.87 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +0.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.51.87Model chance53.9%EV+0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate0.4%Closing EV estimate−99.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 23:04
- under 4.5odds2.52Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:04
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.87Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:04
- under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:04
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.52.00Model chance53.1%EV+6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 06:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:03
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 5.51.78Model chance53.1%EV-5.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 14:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.78Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 14:39
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.51.90Model chance53.1%EV+0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 6odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.4%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
- under 6.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 7odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
- under 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 23:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.51.90Model chance53.1%EV+0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:32
- under 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:32
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:32
- under 6.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:32
- under 7.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
- under 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 23:01
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.51.80Model chance53.1%EV-4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 11:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−13.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 13:40
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
- under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.51.90Model chance53.1%EV+0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:33
- under 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:33
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:33
- under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:33
- under 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:33
- under 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 23:03

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 09:06: under 5.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 10:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · San Lorenzo total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +2.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.51.91Model chance53.4%EV+2.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:04
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.51.75Model chance53.6%EV-6.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 11:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate18.3%Closing EV estimate−15.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:01
- under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:00
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:01
- under 5.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:01
- under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.51.70Model chance53.6%EV-8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−12.3%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
- under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.51.87Model chance53.6%EV+0.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 11:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.63Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.87Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
- under 5.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
- under 6.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:33
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.75Model chance53.6%EV-6.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 11:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.95Closing chance estimate18.3%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:02
- under 3.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:02
- under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:02
- under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:02
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.95Model chance53.6%EV+4.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 12:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds8.70Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−42.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 2.5odds4.55Closing chance estimate18.3%Closing EV estimate−16.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 3.5odds2.77Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 5.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate70.2%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 6.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11
- under 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate90.8%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:11

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 01:22: under 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPLost

under 24.51.87 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +23.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.51.87Model chance65.9%EV+23.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate65.9%Closing EV estimate+26.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 01:05

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 14:50: under 24.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−36.4%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit−1.09units

W / L1 / 2picks

Avg odds1.88settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol Home teamSan Lorenzo Away teamDeportivo Riestra RefereeBruno Amiconi

Matches

Cards · match total

Corners · San Lorenzo total

Fouls · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings