Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta 5-1 — Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série BBrasileiro Serie B 2026

Novorizontino

5–1

HT 3–1

Ponte Preta

Mon 12 Oct·16:00·Matchday 33·Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi·Novorizontino won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners3
1Cards6
13Shots13
7Shots on target7
23Fouls23
13Throw-ins23
7Goal kicks8
5Saves3
14Tackles14
10Interceptions11
4Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

1 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

16:00NovorizontinovPonte PretaBrasileirão Série B0 won / 2 lost · −2.00u · 2 picks

Corners · Novorizontino total

Open match →VIPLost

over 8.51.98 at BetMGM UK−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +11.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 8.51.98Model chance56.0%EV+11.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 22:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 22:00
KambiAt recommendationover 8.51.87Model chance54.5%EV+2.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:03
- over 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 8.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 9.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 10.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
Bet365Closing estimateover 8.51.80Model chance55.2%EV-0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 22:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 22:00
LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.51.80Model chance55.2%EV-0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 14:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate−8.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 9.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.51.77Model chance55.2%EV-2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:02
- over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.77Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:02
- over 9.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 03:33: over 8.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 9.52.80 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +66.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.52.80Model chance59.6%EV+66.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+69.6%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- under 10.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+52.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:32
- under 11.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+37.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:32
- under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate87.1%Closing EV estimate+26.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- under 13.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate92.1%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:32
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.35Model chance59.5%EV+39.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 02:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate47.0%Closing EV estimate+45.8%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+39.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 10.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+30.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+28.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 12.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate87.1%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.02Model chance59.5%EV+20.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate47.0%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:01
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:02
- under 10.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:32
- under 11.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:54: under 9.5 at 2.80 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−100.0%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit−2.00units

W / L0 / 2picks

Avg odds2.39settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série B Home teamNovorizontino Away teamPonte Preta RefereeJoao Vitor Gobi

Matches

Corners · Novorizontino total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

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