Genoa vs Fiorentina — Serie A

Serie ASerie A 26/27

Genoa

2–1

HT 2–0

Fiorentina

Sat 10 Oct··Matchday 6·Luigi Ferraris, Genoa·Genoa won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 3Corners4
  • 5Cards3
  • 10Shots13
  • 4Shots on target3
  • 11Fouls10
  • 15Throw-ins25
  • 2Offsides2
  • 13Goal kicks7
  • 3Saves2
  • 23Tackles19
  • 8Interceptions3
  • 5Dribbles10
14 Free6 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
GenoavFiorentinaSerie A7 won / 13 lost · −5.06u · 20 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost
under 3.52.42 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.42Model chance50.0%EV+21.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds19.00Closing chance estimate2.1%Closing EV estimate−59.5%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate10.3%Closing EV estimate−20.4%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate90.4%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.3%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.52.65Model chance46.4%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.65Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 4.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 5.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate90.4%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.52.65Model chance46.4%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.65Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate90.4%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.65Model chance46.4%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.65Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate90.4%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.52.50Model chance46.4%EV+15.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 3.5 at 2.42 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 8.51.91 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.64. Expected value at recommendation: +17.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.51.91Model chance61.3%EV+17.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.51.65Model chance61.6%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.95Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate13.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.51.65Model chance61.6%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate13.6%Closing EV estimate−11.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.51.65Model chance61.6%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.51.74Model chance61.6%EV+7.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.4%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin3.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.0%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin6.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.74Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate13.6%Closing EV estimate−13.2%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds8.70Closing chance estimate8.8%Closing EV estimate−23.3%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate5.5%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds18.00Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−40.2%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 8.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost
over 4.52.10 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +23.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.52.10Model chance58.9%EV+23.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−43.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 4.51.98Model chance56.8%EV+12.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−41.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 4.51.98Model chance56.8%EV+12.5%
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance28.5%EV-45.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate46.7%Closing EV estimate−34.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−45.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−59.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate7.5%Closing EV estimate−68.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance28.5%EV-45.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 07:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate46.7%Closing EV estimate−34.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−45.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−57.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate7.5%Closing EV estimate−66.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance28.5%EV-45.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate46.7%Closing EV estimate−35.1%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−45.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−58.4%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate7.5%Closing EV estimate−66.9%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.51.91Model chance28.5%EV-45.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−22.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate46.7%Closing EV estimate−32.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−45.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−55.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.51.95Model chance28.5%EV-44.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate96.7%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate85.8%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−17.5%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate46.7%Closing EV estimate−30.4%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate−44.5%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−58.1%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate7.5%Closing EV estimate−70.7%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−80.7%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds8.60Closing chance estimate1.4%Closing EV estimate−88.4%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate0.5%Closing EV estimate−92.9%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds21.00Closing chance estimate0.2%Closing EV estimate−96.3%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 05:28. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Genoa total

Open match →VIPWon
under 3.52.45 at Betlive+1.45u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +33.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.45Model chance54.3%EV+33.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate32.4%Closing EV estimate+36.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate53.3%Closing EV estimate+30.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 3.52.35Model chance54.3%EV+27.7%
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 3.52.45Model chance54.3%EV+33.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate32.4%Closing EV estimate+39.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate53.3%Closing EV estimate+30.5%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.52.30Model chance54.3%EV+24.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−24.2%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds7.90Closing chance estimate14.2%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate32.4%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate53.3%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.78Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate96.7%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate99.5%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.8%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.52.45Model chance53.3%EV+30.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 07:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate32.4%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate53.3%Closing EV estimate+30.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate92.5%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.52.60Model chance53.3%EV+38.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate32.4%Closing EV estimate+55.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate53.3%Closing EV estimate+38.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: under 3.5 at 2.45 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 13:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Fiorentina total

Open match →FreeLost
over 5.52.80 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +57.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 5.52.80Model chance56.3%EV+57.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate93.5%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+40.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.80Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+60.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate42.1%Closing EV estimate+89.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 5.52.85Model chance56.3%EV+60.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate93.5%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+40.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+65.8%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate42.1%Closing EV estimate+97.7%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerAt recommendationover 5.53.60Model chance56.3%EV+102.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate93.5%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+58.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+88.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.52.85Model chance57.2%EV+62.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 07:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate93.5%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+40.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.85Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+62.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate42.1%Closing EV estimate+99.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.52.90Model chance57.2%EV+65.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.7%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin4.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate98.1%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate93.5%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+31.4%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+47.9%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.90Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+65.8%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate42.1%Closing EV estimate+76.7%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds6.30Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate+81.3%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate+72.5%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate11.0%Closing EV estimate+64.4%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds24.00Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate+47.6%margin3.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 5.5 at 2.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPWon
under 22.53.05 at Liderbet+2.05u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +71.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 22.52.90Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 23odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 24odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+60.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+50.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 26.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate87.9%Closing EV estimate+40.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 27.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 28.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+23.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 29odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 29.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.53.05Model chance56.3%EV+71.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds3.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.8%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.0%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+72.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+58.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate87.9%Closing EV estimate+45.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate+37.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+26.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: under 22.5 at 3.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 02:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Genoa total

Open match →FreeWon
under 12.51.83 at Superbet+0.83u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 76.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.31. Expected value at recommendation: +40.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.51.83Model chance76.6%EV+40.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate78.7%Closing EV estimate+43.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.51.70Model chance78.7%EV+33.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+54.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+42.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate78.7%Closing EV estimate+33.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.51.85Model chance78.7%EV+45.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+71.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+52.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate78.7%Closing EV estimate+45.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate91.2%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.51.85Model chance78.7%EV+45.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+52.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate78.7%Closing EV estimate+45.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 12.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Fiorentina total

Open match →FreeWon
under 12.51.83 at Superbet+0.83u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +16.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 12.52.05Model chance62.5%EV+28.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+43.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+34.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.51.83Model chance63.6%EV+16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+34.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.52.00Model chance70.0%EV+40.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+51.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+40.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+34.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.52.00Model chance70.0%EV+40.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+57.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+40.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+34.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate91.0%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 12.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost
under 0.52.75 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +39.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 0.52.75Model chance50.6%EV+39.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.75Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+38.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin6.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.5%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin3.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 0.52.90Model chance50.6%EV+46.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+43.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 0.52.70Model chance50.6%EV+36.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 1.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.5%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 0.52.70Model chance50.6%EV+36.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.5%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 0.52.85Model chance50.6%EV+44.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+41.2%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.5%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: under 0.5 at 2.75 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 14:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Saves · match total

Open match →FreeWon
under 6.51.90 at Liderbet+0.90u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.51.90Model chance55.1%EV+4.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate27.1%Closing EV estimate−29.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate40.9%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.51.60Model chance40.9%EV-34.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−54.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate27.1%Closing EV estimate−45.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate40.9%Closing EV estimate−34.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: under 6.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 09:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPLost
over 28.52.22 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +20.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateover 28.52.50Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 23.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+22.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 25.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+31.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 26.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+38.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+45.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 29odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+69.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 28.52.75Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+43.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+49.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+59.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+57.8%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 28.52.16Model chance51.4%EV+11.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+27.2%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+33.1%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+46.3%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+51.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 28.52.85Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+43.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+53.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+66.4%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+60.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 28.52.22Model chance54.2%EV+20.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+27.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+35.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+53.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+58.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 31.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate+68.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 28.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost
over 13.52.10 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +24.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 13.52.10Model chance67.3%EV+41.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−38.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 13.52.10Model chance59.1%EV+24.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−22.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate−30.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−38.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 13.52.35Model chance28.8%EV-32.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate−27.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−32.3%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−51.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 13.51.95Model chance28.8%EV-43.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−31.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate−38.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−43.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−50.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 13.52.10Model chance28.8%EV-39.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate−23.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−26.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate−32.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−39.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−42.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate−57.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 13.52.07Model chance28.8%EV-40.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate70.8%Closing EV estimate−14.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate−20.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−26.4%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate38.4%Closing EV estimate−32.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−40.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−49.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate14.4%Closing EV estimate−57.7%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 13.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Genoa total

Open match →VIPWon
under 13.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 78.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.29. Expected value at recommendation: +48.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 13.51.91Model chance78.0%EV+48.9%
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 13.51.55Model chance71.2%EV+10.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.08Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 13.51.68Model chance71.2%EV+19.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate39.8%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+19.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+21.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.68Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 13.51.55Model chance71.2%EV+10.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 13.51.65Model chance71.2%EV+17.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+24.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 13.51.55Model chance71.2%EV+10.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate39.8%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 13.51.40Model chance71.2%EV-0.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.40Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: under 13.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:03. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Fiorentina total

Open match →VIPLost
over 14.51.91 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 78.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.29. Expected value at recommendation: +49.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 14.51.91Model chance78.0%EV+49.0%
  • KambiClosing estimateover 14.51.92Model chance84.2%EV+61.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+48.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+61.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+75.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 14.52.40Model chance84.2%EV+102.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+34.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+48.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+73.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+102.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 14.52.75Model chance84.2%EV+131.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+43.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+62.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+87.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.75Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+131.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+130.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.52.35Model chance84.2%EV+97.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+38.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+48.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+69.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+97.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.52.07Model chance84.2%EV+74.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.6%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+30.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+42.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.76Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+56.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+74.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+92.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+105.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 14.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 9.52.00 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • KambiAt recommendationover 9.52.00Model chance52.8%EV+5.7%
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.52.00Model chance52.2%EV+4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate40.5%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate29.3%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate20.1%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−14.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 9.52.10Model chance52.8%EV+11.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate40.5%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.52.10Model chance52.8%EV+11.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate40.5%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.52.15Model chance52.8%EV+13.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate40.5%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.95Closing chance estimate29.3%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:34: over 9.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 06:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost
over 4.52.10 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +11.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.52.10Model chance52.9%EV+11.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−25.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 4.52.02Model chance52.9%EV+6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−26.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 4.52.02Model chance52.9%EV+6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate−12.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−17.9%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−26.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−37.9%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.60Closing chance estimate10.4%Closing EV estimate−52.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.51.97Model chance52.9%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate−7.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−16.8%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−26.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−36.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.45Closing chance estimate10.4%Closing EV estimate−53.9%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds6.70Closing chance estimate4.7%Closing EV estimate−68.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance35.6%EV-32.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−21.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−32.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−44.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance35.6%EV-32.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−22.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−32.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−44.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.90Model chance35.6%EV-32.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−20.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−32.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−44.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:34: over 4.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost
under 3.52.35 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +26.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.35Model chance53.6%EV+26.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.28Closing chance estimate44.9%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.52.40Model chance44.9%EV+7.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate44.9%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.52.45Model chance44.9%EV+10.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate44.9%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.35Model chance44.9%EV+5.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate44.9%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.32Model chance44.9%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds7.20Closing chance estimate9.8%Closing EV estimate−29.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.32Closing chance estimate44.9%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate89.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: under 3.5 at 2.35 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Fiorentina total

Open match →FreeWon
under 4.51.97 at Superbet+0.97u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +4.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.51.97Model chance53.0%EV+4.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds9.20Closing chance estimate1.8%Closing EV estimate−83.3%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate6.4%Closing EV estimate−67.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.92Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−54.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−42.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate61.0%Closing EV estimate−25.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.51.83Model chance29.0%EV-46.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−46.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.51.70Model chance29.0%EV-50.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−62.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−50.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−40.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.51.70Model chance29.0%EV-50.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−62.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−50.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−40.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 4.51.90Model chance29.0%EV-44.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−55.9%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−44.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−35.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate61.0%Closing EV estimate−27.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.65Model chance29.0%EV-52.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate−63.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate−52.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−40.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 40.52.60 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +31.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 40.52.20Model chance50.3%EV+10.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 36.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 37.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate65.0%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 38.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 39.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 40.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 40.52.60Model chance50.5%EV+31.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 34.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 35.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 36.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 37.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.0%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 38.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 39.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 40.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 41.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 40.52.25Model chance50.3%EV+13.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 35.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 36.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 37.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.0%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 38.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 39.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 40.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 41.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: over 40.5 at 2.60 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Genoa total

Open match →VIPLost
over 19.52.25 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +27.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.52.25Model chance56.6%EV+27.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 19.52.10Model chance56.3%EV+18.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 16.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 20.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate48.5%Closing EV estimate+23.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 19.51.95Model chance56.3%EV+9.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: over 19.5 at 2.25 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−25.3%ROI · 20 units staked
Profit−5.06units
W / L7 / 13picks
Avg odds2.22settled picks
Recorded picks201 matches

Around this match

Previous meetings