FC Arouca vs CF Estrela Amadora 1-0 — Liga Portugal Betclic

Liga Portugal BetclicLiga Portugal 26/27

FC Arouca

1–0

HT 1–0

CF Estrela Amadora

Sun 11 Oct·13:30·Matchday 8·Estádio Municipal de Arouca·FC Arouca won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners6
5Cards2
7Shots11
3Shots on target2
10Fouls7
13Throw-ins21
2Offsides3
12Goal kicks2
2Saves2
20Tackles7
9Interceptions4
4Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

7 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

13:30FC AroucavCF Estrela AmadoraLiga Portugal Betclic1 won / 7 lost · −5.90u · 8 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 4.52.57 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +43.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.52.57Model chance55.6%EV+43.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 10:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate1.4%Closing EV estimate−98.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:33
- under 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+44.6%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:33
- under 5.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+36.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:33
- under 6.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:33
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.52.25Model chance55.6%EV+25.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.9%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+25.2%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 5.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 6odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 6.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.52.60Model chance55.6%EV+44.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+47.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+44.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 5.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+29.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+21.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 7.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.95Model chance55.6%EV+8.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate19.5%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 3.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 2.57 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · FC Arouca total

Open match →FreeLost

under 2.51.92 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.60. Expected value at recommendation: +20.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.51.92Model chance62.6%EV+20.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 10:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate11.8%Closing EV estimate−87.2%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 13:38
- under 2.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:33
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.51.65Model chance63.2%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate36.6%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 2odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.51.85Model chance63.2%EV+16.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate36.6%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.51.55Model chance63.2%EV-2.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate36.6%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 3.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 13:47: under 2.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · CF Estrela Amadora total

Open match →FreeWon

under 2.52.10 at Superbet+1.10u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +28.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.51.95Model chance61.8%EV+20.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.52.10Model chance60.4%EV+26.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+30.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
- under 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:02
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.52.10Model chance61.4%EV+28.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate11.3%Closing EV estimate−87.5%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 13:38
- under 2.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+31.4%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 01:34
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.51.65Model chance62.0%EV+2.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32
- under 3.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 13:47: under 2.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 8.52.00 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 8.52.00Model chance59.0%EV+18.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 12:16
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:16
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.51.90Model chance58.4%EV+10.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate20.5%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:00
- under 6.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:19
- under 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:19
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:19
- under 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:19
- under 10.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:19
- under 11.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 12.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 13.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.51.90Model chance58.4%EV+10.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate20.5%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 6.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 7.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:21
- under 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:21
- under 10.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:21
- under 11.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.51.90Model chance58.4%EV+10.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:33
- under 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:33
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:33
- under 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:33
- under 10.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:33
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.52.00Model chance58.4%EV+16.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate5.2%Closing EV estimate−27.8%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 4.5odds7.90Closing chance estimate11.3%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 5.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate20.5%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 6.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 7.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 9.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+14.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 10.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 11.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 12.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 13.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · FC Arouca total

Open match →FreeLost

under 4.52.00 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.51.90Model chance57.3%EV+8.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 3.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 5.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 6.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:30
- under 7.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.52.00Model chance56.8%EV+13.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:23
- under 5.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.51.90Model chance59.8%EV+13.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds8.40Closing chance estimate8.8%Closing EV estimate−26.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 2.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 3.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 5.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 6.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 7.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.51.83Model chance59.6%EV+9.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:04
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.52.00Model chance59.6%EV+19.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+20.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.52.05Model chance59.6%EV+22.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 10:02
- under 3.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+22.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 7.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate93.0%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · CF Estrela Amadora total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.52.20 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.20Model chance50.0%EV+10.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:04
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.52.15Model chance46.2%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 6.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.52.10Model chance46.2%EV-3.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 09:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate−12.4%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
- under 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:36
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.52.10Model chance46.2%EV-3.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- under 4.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.20Model chance46.2%EV+1.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 5.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.15Model chance46.2%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate2.4%Closing EV estimate−60.0%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 1.5odds6.30Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−31.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 2.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 5.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 3.5 at 2.20 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 2.52.05 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.54. Expected value at recommendation: +33.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.52.05Model chance65.1%EV+33.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.9%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+33.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate83.6%Closing EV estimate+17.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.52.10Model chance65.1%EV+36.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+44.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+36.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32
- under 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate83.6%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 2.5 at 2.05 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPLost

over 25.52.00 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 25.52.00Model chance52.2%EV+4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 20.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:05
- over 21.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- over 22.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate73.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- over 23.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate67.3%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- over 24.5odds1.69Closing chance estimate60.5%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:03
- over 25.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 04:35
- over 26.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:32
- over 27.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- over 28.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate33.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- over 29.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
BetliveClosing estimateover 25.52.05Model chance53.5%EV+9.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 21.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.5%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 22odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 22.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate73.7%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 23odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate67.3%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 24odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 24.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate60.5%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 25odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.7%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 26odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 26.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 27odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- over 27.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 13:47: over 25.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 17:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−73.8%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−5.90units

W / L1 / 7picks

Avg odds2.10settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Portugal Betclic Home teamFC Arouca Away teamCF Estrela Amadora RefereeLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · FC Arouca total

Cards · CF Estrela Amadora total

Corners · match total

Corners · FC Arouca total

Corners · CF Estrela Amadora total

Offsides · match total

Shots · match total

This match

Around this match

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