Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Sat 10 Oct··Matchday 8·Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz·Atlético Madrid won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 0Corners10
  • 1Cards3
  • 8Shots22
  • 3Shots on target7
  • 11Fouls14
  • 14Throw-ins22
  • 1Offsides2
  • 6Goal kicks5
  • 5Saves2
  • 21Tackles19
  • 15Interceptions12
  • 8Dribbles12
8 Free5 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
Deportivo AlavésvAtlético MadridLaLiga8 won / 5 lost · +3.11u · 13 picks

Cards · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreeLost
under 1.52.70 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +37.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.52.70Model chance51.0%EV+37.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+28.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.52.45Model chance51.0%EV+25.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 10:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+23.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 1.52.60Model chance51.0%EV+32.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+28.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+19.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.52.45Model chance51.0%EV+25.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+23.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • under 3.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.52.87Model chance51.0%EV+46.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate19.0%Closing EV estimate−79.8%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+50.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate76.3%Closing EV estimate+32.0%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 02:51: under 1.5 at 2.70 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Deportivo Alavés total

Open match →FreeLost
over 4.52.00 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365At recommendationover 4.52.00Model chance52.5%EV+5.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.52.00Model chance54.4%EV+8.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.0%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin6.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin6.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.15Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−17.1%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds6.20Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−32.3%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds9.20Closing chance estimate5.5%Closing EV estimate−49.6%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−62.0%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate1.1%Closing EV estimate−74.9%margin3.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.95Model chance50.2%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.75Model chance50.2%EV-12.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 08:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate−5.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate−18.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−25.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.52.10Model chance50.2%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−16.1%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−42.1%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.95Model chance50.2%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.52.10Model chance50.2%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate33.3%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreeWon
over 5.52.10 at Bet365+1.10u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +6.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 5.52.10Model chance50.9%EV+6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 5.52.12Model chance50.9%EV+7.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds2.16Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerAt recommendationover 5.52.25Model chance52.3%EV+17.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate92.0%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+16.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 5.52.12Model chance52.3%EV+10.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.6%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin2.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate97.6%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate92.0%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.17Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.25Closing chance estimate22.7%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate13.4%Closing EV estimate−18.0%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds8.90Closing chance estimate7.4%Closing EV estimate−34.3%margin6.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate3.8%Closing EV estimate−47.1%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.52.05Model chance50.9%EV+4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate22.7%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.52.10Model chance50.9%EV+6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 08:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate22.7%Closing EV estimate+19.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.52.16Model chance50.9%EV+10.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate92.0%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.16Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate22.7%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.52.05Model chance50.9%EV+4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.5%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.60Closing chance estimate22.7%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 5.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPWon
under 25.51.85 at Superbet+0.85u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 25.51.85Model chance59.4%EV+9.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.1%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 26.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate66.4%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 27.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 28.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate78.6%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 25.51.80Model chance59.4%EV+6.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate44.1%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate66.4%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate78.6%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 25.51.85Model chance60.8%EV+12.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 25.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate66.4%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 25.51.90Model chance59.4%EV+12.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate44.1%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate66.4%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 07:51: under 25.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreeLost
under 12.51.95 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 69.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.45. Expected value at recommendation: +35.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.51.95Model chance69.2%EV+35.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.51.65Model chance68.4%EV+12.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate46.0%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate57.7%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.51.70Model chance68.4%EV+16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate46.0%Closing EV estimate+26.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate57.7%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.51.70Model chance68.4%EV+16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate57.7%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:47: under 12.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →VIPWon
under 6.52.15 at Betlive+1.15u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.52.15Model chance50.1%EV+7.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 6.52.30Model chance50.1%EV+15.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 6.52.07Model chance50.1%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.52.30Model chance51.0%EV+17.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: under 6.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Offsides · Deportivo Alavés total

Open match →FreeWon
under 1.51.92 at Liderbet+0.92u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +3.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.51.92Model chance54.0%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate92.3%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.51.75Model chance54.1%EV-5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.51.80Model chance54.1%EV-2.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate21.5%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate54.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 07:17: under 1.5 at 1.92 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon
over 26.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 26.51.91Model chance61.7%EV+17.9%
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 26.51.61Model chance58.5%EV-5.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate77.2%Closing EV estimate−5.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate58.5%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate32.5%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 31.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate26.9%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 26.52.10Model chance58.5%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 23.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate77.2%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 25.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+20.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate58.5%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+26.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+30.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 26.52.10Model chance58.5%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate77.2%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+17.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+20.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate58.5%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+26.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+33.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 26.51.93Model chance58.5%EV+13.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate77.2%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.93Closing chance estimate58.5%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.23Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate32.5%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 26.52.05Model chance58.5%EV+20.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate77.2%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate58.5%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+28.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 16:11: over 26.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Deportivo Alavés total

Open match →VIPLost
over 11.51.83 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateover 11.52.20Model chance58.6%EV+28.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+28.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+33.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.52.10Model chance58.6%EV+23.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+23.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.51.83Model chance59.1%EV+8.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate37.5%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 11.52.05Model chance61.2%EV+25.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 11.51.91Model chance58.6%EV+11.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 11.51.73Model chance58.6%EV+1.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.5%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate28.3%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:51: over 11.5 at 1.83 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →VIPWon
over 14.52.00 at Bet365+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 14.52.00Model chance59.3%EV+18.6%
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 14.51.80Model chance57.6%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate38.9%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 14.51.80Model chance57.6%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 14.51.95Model chance57.6%EV+12.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.48Closing chance estimate38.9%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.51.80Model chance57.6%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.51.63Model chance57.6%EV-6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.63Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate38.9%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate30.4%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate23.1%Closing EV estimate−28.4%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: over 14.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 14:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeWon
over 9.52.27 at Superbet+1.27u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +15.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.52.27Model chance51.0%EV+15.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate71.8%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.42Closing chance estimate47.2%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+16.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate25.1%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate16.9%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 9.52.30Model chance47.2%EV+8.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.8%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate47.2%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.52.30Model chance47.2%EV+8.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.8%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate47.2%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 9.52.55Model chance47.2%EV+20.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate71.8%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.93Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.55Closing chance estimate47.2%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+21.8%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate25.1%Closing EV estimate+17.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.52.30Model chance47.2%EV+8.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate90.1%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.8%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate47.2%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate25.1%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:42: over 9.5 at 2.27 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Deportivo Alavés total

Open match →FreeLost
over 3.51.90 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +15.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.51.90Model chance60.8%EV+15.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.0%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+17.1%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate25.4%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−5.1%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.51.61Model chance60.6%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance60.6%EV+6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.51.90Model chance60.6%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 3.51.84Model chance60.6%EV+11.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.84Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate25.4%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.90Model chance60.6%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+20.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 05:22: over 3.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 06:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreeWon
over 4.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 66.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +26.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.51.91Model chance66.2%EV+26.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.70Model chance59.6%EV+1.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.55Model chance59.6%EV-7.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−21.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.51.78Model chance59.6%EV+6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.78Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.55Model chance59.6%EV-7.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−17.2%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.51.64Model chance59.6%EV-2.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.9%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate76.1%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.64Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−23.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+23.9%ROI · 13 units staked
Profit+3.11units
W / L8 / 5picks
Avg odds2.04settled picks
Recorded picks131 matches

Around this match

Previous meetings