Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Fri 9 Oct··Matchday 12·Estadio 15 de Abril·Defensa y Justicia won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 6Corners3
  • 5Cards2
  • 26Shots21
  • 7Shots on target10
  • 16Fouls9
  • 24Throw-ins22
  • 1Offsides3
  • 8Goal kicks10
  • 7Saves7
  • 20Tackles18
  • 7Interceptions12
  • 4Dribbles9
6 Free3 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
Club Atlético Unión de Santa FevDefensa y JusticiaLiga Profesional de Fútbol3 won / 6 lost · −3.35u · 9 picks

Cards · Defensa y Justicia total

Open match →FreeLost
over 2.51.87 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +6.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 2.51.87Model chance56.9%EV+6.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.87Closing chance estimate56.4%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 2.51.95Model chance56.9%EV+10.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 16:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate+430.6%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate79.3%Closing EV estimate+1247.3%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate56.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 2.51.80Model chance56.4%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.3%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.4%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.51.80Model chance56.4%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.3%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.4%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 03:06: over 2.5 at 1.87 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 03:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon
over 8.51.85 at Kambi+0.85u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +4.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 8.51.85Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.14Closing chance estimate44.5%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate23.3%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−22.0%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate10.0%Closing EV estimate−48.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 8.51.67Model chance56.9%EV-5.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 16:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−5.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.51.60Model chance56.9%EV-9.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 17:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate44.5%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate23.3%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−6.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds8.30Closing chance estimate10.0%Closing EV estimate−17.3%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.51.60Model chance56.9%EV-9.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 00:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate44.5%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate23.3%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.51.60Model chance56.9%EV-9.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate44.5%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate23.3%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.51.68Model chance56.9%EV-4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate97.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.68Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate44.5%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate−14.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate23.3%Closing EV estimate−22.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.45Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−30.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.90Closing chance estimate10.0%Closing EV estimate−41.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 8.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 00:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Defensa y Justicia total

Open match →FreeLost
over 3.52.10 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +26.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.52.10Model chance60.2%EV+26.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+35.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 3.51.96Model chance59.4%EV+16.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+19.7%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 3.51.97Model chance60.2%EV+18.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.7%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate93.2%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+26.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance64.6%EV+13.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 17:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate93.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+28.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.51.55Model chance64.6%EV+0.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 00:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.79Model chance64.6%EV+15.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 17:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate93.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.79Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.60Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+35.8%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPLost
under 23.51.85 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +0.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 23.51.85Model chance54.5%EV+0.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 23.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 23.51.65Model chance52.6%EV-13.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:11: under 23.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Saves · match total

Open match →FreeLost
under 6.52.10 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +13.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.52.10Model chance53.8%EV+13.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate66.7%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate78.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 01:42: under 6.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon
over 26.51.88 at Superbet+0.88u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: -5.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 26.51.88Model chance50.1%EV-5.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 17:07

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate64.6%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate31.8%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate26.3%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 26.51.55Model chance51.1%EV-20.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 25.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate−18.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate−24.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−29.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate31.8%Closing EV estimate−28.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: over 26.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 05:02. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe total

Open match →VIPLost
under 14.52.00 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +1.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 14.52.00Model chance50.9%EV+1.8%
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.51.85Model chance51.4%EV-4.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate32.1%Closing EV estimate−13.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate41.6%Closing EV estimate−12.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate69.5%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.51.87Model chance51.4%EV-3.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 16:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate23.4%Closing EV estimate−20.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate32.1%Closing EV estimate−13.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate41.6%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.87Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate69.5%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 17.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 13:47: under 14.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Defensa y Justicia total

Open match →FreeWon
over 11.51.92 at Superbet+0.92u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +7.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 11.51.92Model chance56.0%EV+7.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 16:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.5%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate36.0%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 11.52.00Model chance56.9%EV+13.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 13:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.51.65Model chance56.9%EV-6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate67.5%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate46.2%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate36.0%Closing EV estimate−18.9%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate−27.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:11: over 11.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost
under 8.52.65 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +36.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.52.65Model chance51.3%EV+36.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.48Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.89Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 8.52.50Model chance50.9%EV+27.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+24.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 8.51.95Model chance51.3%EV+0.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 16:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate14.8%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate24.8%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+23.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate92.9%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.52.50Model chance49.8%EV+24.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+24.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+21.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: under 8.5 at 2.65 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 03:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−37.2%ROI · 9 units staked
Profit−3.35units
W / L3 / 6picks
Avg odds2.02settled picks
Recorded picks91 matches

Around this match

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