Burnley vs Charlton Athletic 2-2 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Burnley

2–2

Charlton Athletic

Yesterday·12:45·Matchday 10·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

7Corners7
2Cards1
18Shots9
4Shots on target5
4Fouls12
23Throw-ins13
5Goal kicks13
2Saves2
15Tackles24
14Interceptions13
6Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

2 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45BurnleyvCharlton AthleticChampionship1 won / 1 lost · +0.20u · 2 picks

Shots · Burnley total

Open match →FreeLost

under 16.52.00 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 66.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.50. Expected value at recommendation: +33.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 16.52.00Model chance66.9%EV+33.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+38.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 16.51.80Model chance69.1%EV+24.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 01:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:32
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:32
- under 17.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:32
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 16.51.85Model chance69.1%EV+27.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 09:51
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 13.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+44.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- under 14.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- under 15.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate61.6%Closing EV estimate+32.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:49
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+27.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:49
- under 17.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- under 18.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate81.5%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- under 19.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate86.3%Closing EV estimate+14.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 13:03: under 16.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Charlton Athletic total

Open match →FreeWon

over 3.52.20 at Bet365+1.20u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +14.0%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 31 settled picks and +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.52.20Model chance51.8%EV+14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
KambiClosing estimateover 3.52.30Model chance49.6%EV+14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 4.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate31.8%Closing EV estimate+17.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:20
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.52.00Model chance49.6%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 01:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:32
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:32
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.52.15Model chance49.6%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:25
- over 2.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate69.2%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:25
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:25
- over 4.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate31.8%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:25
- over 5.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:02
- over 6.5odds8.30Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate−20.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:49: over 3.5 at 2.20 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+10.0%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.20units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.10settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamBurnley Away teamCharlton Athletic RefereeAnthony Backhouse