Botafogo-SP vs Ceará 1-0 — Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série BBrasileiro Serie B 2026

Botafogo-SP

1–0

Ceará

Mon 12 Oct·18:00·Matchday 33·Estádio Santa Cruz·Botafogo-SP won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

8Corners4
1Cards2
15Shots11
4Shots on target3
13Fouls18
19Throw-ins21
1Offsides2
7Goal kicks9
3Saves3
12Tackles12
6Interceptions11
5Dribbles2

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

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Board

Matches

1 match

18:00Botafogo-SPvCearáBrasileirão Série B0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 10.51.97 at BetMGM UK−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.51.97Model chance53.6%EV+5.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5odds1.98Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:01
KambiAt recommendationunder 10.51.97Model chance53.6%EV+5.6%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.51.95Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 17:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate21.4%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:00
- under 8.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:30
- under 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:30
- under 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 13.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.51.95Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 17:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
- under 13.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:30
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.51.95Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 17:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:31
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:31
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:01
- under 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:31
- under 13.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:31
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.52.05Model chance54.6%EV+11.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 17:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate31.7%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:02
- under 9.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:32
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:32
- under 11.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:32
- under 12.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:32
- under 13.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 17:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:06: under 10.5 at 1.97 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−100.0%ROI · 1 unit staked

Profit−1.00units

W / L0 / 1picks

Avg odds1.97settled picks

Recorded picks11 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série B Home teamBotafogo-SP Away teamCeará RefereeJonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro

Matches

Corners · match total

This match

Around this match

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